CMOs don’t only fear losing conversions. They fear losing their jobs.
That fear shapes how marketing is done.
Loss aversion in the marketing department
Behavioural economics shows that people hate losses more than they like gains. Losing €10 hurts more than gaining €10 feels good.
In economics, this is known as loss aversion.
Risk aversion means people prefer a certain outcome over an uncertain one, even when the expected return of the uncertain investment is higher.
Losing simply hurts more than winning feels good…
The same happens in marketing. Marketers don’t want to test reallocating budgets. They fear a drop in conversions more than they value the potential upside.
That’s why most teams don’t test enough. They’re not trying to win. They’re trying to avoid losing.
Losing would endanger a marketing agency’s retainer, and the CMO might even lose their job.
Test aversion kills creativity
Test aversion is just loss aversion in a marketing outfit. And it kills creativity.
Budgets stay in the same channels year after year. With minimal tweaks.
Campaigns repeat the same “safe” formulas.
Real new opportunities never get tested.
Instead of exploring new growth, marketing becomes a defensive routine.
The baseline nobody knows
Marketers who refuse to test don’t even know what they’re protecting.
Without experiments, you don’t know the baseline demand without advertising. How many sales would come anyway from brand, organic, or word of mouth? How much is truly incremental?
Most CMOs don’t know. And test aversion keeps it that way.
Yet they constantly talk about the importance of the brand, or how brand advertising is the best performance marketing.
Amazon’s bold move
In July 2025, Amazon did what most CMOs wouldn’t dare. They stopped Google Shopping ads for a whole month. Globally.
Then they came back—everywhere except the US.
What does that mean?
They were willing to accept a global drop in conversions.
They measured the true incrementality of Shopping ads.
They decided US Shopping ads weren’t worth the spend.
A month’s revenue was irrelevant. The insights were priceless.
Lessons for marketers
Don’t overestimate the cost of testing. A short dip in conversions is cheaper than years of wasted spend.
- Treat tests as insurance. They reduce uncertainty and protect future budgets.
- Think bigger. A one-month test can change your whole strategy.
- Know your baseline. Without it, you can’t prove the value of advertising.
- Get your CEO’s approval first.
Courage to win
Most marketers let loss aversion dictate their approach.
They play not to lose. They stop testing. They stop creating.
But testing is the only way to learn. Amazon proved it.
Loss and risk aversion stop creativity. Test aversion hides the truth.
The cost of testing is small. The cost of not testing is huge.